Stock Market Forecast For The Next 12 Months

By Jim Jubak - MSN Money

I'm not a big fan of Jim Jubak, I think he's a rotten stock picker; however, I think his latest article at MSN Money hits the nail pretty much on the head. So instead of writing my own fearless stock market forecast for the next 12 months (I'm a little lazy around the edges), here you go...

If you're too lazy to click the link and read the entire article here are the bullet points...
1. In the next month or so, a big stock market rally.
2. The stock market rally fails in early 2009.
3. In the middle of 2009, stock market pessimism deepens.
4. In late 2009 and early 2010, the stock market bottoms.
5. The stock market recovers after 2010.

Thanks Jim. You're a much better writer than I am. I would like to add that I think the recovery may take longer than a couple of years. I can imagine a scenario where we enter a period of sub-par market performance that can last as long as five years.

Get Your Shopping List Ready

You would think that an investment blogger would have had more to say during this recent financial turbulence. Well I didn’t, until now.

Anything I had to say I said in January and again in June. I was right. Why repeat myself? If you need hand holding then you need to send me a check.

Today I closed my short ETF trades in DUG and DXD and pulled out my shopping list. Next week (not Monday! Lord no - I never trade on Monday) I’ll be looking to do a little long-term buying in mutual funds.

First - Long Term for me means 5-10 Years.

Second - A little buying means somewhere between 10% to 30% of what will eventually be a full (100%) position.

Remember - A full position should never be more than 10% of the overall portfolio. I like to keep it at around 5%.

Here’s My Shopping List. I’ll be doing some research over the calm of the weekend and I’ll post any additions if needed.

FFFDX - Fidelity Freedom 2020
FSPTX - Fidelity Select Financial Services
FSPTX - Fidelity Select Technology
NCT – Newcastle Investment Corp (Real Estate Investment Trust, REIT)

Now listen up, I my be a little early but the markets have pulled back somewhere between 40% to 50% depending on the time of day and they may very well have another 10% to 20% to go. We are oversold on nothing more than fear at this point. Monday could be very ugly, who knows. I do know that if you have a long term time frame there are some very good buys out there right now.

Kiplinger’s High Yield Investments

Kiplinger’s July 2008 Issue highlights opportunities to earn high yields on tankers, pipelines and real estate stocks.

Closed-End Income Funds:
First Trust Strategic High Income (FHI) - bank loans, mortgage-related securities and junk bonds. 14.6% yield.
Denali Fund (DNY) - Currently trades at a 9.5% discount to Net Asset Value and is converting from REIT fund to general leveraged fund. 12% yield

Junk Bond Funds - 8% yields:
Metropolitan West High Yield Bond (MWHYX)
Payden High Income (PYHRX)
TCW High Yield Bond I (TGHYX)

Energy Income Trusts:
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 11% yield
San Juan Basin (SJT) 7.7% yield
Cross Timbers (CRT) 9.9% yield
Enerplus (ERF) 10.5% yield
Harvest Energy (HTE) 14.7% yield

Ocean-Shipping Fleets:
Seaspan (SSW) 7.3% yield
Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) 5.7% yield

High Yield Property REITS - Focus on Real Estate Investment Trusts that own hospitals, medical office buildings and other health-care facilities:
Codell Spencer (CSA) 7.5% yield
Medical Properties Trust (MPW) 8.4%
First Industrial Realty Trust (FR) 9%

Pipelines:
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) 6.6% yield
Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP) 6.4% yield
Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) 7% yield
Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) 7% yield

Emerging-Market Bonds:
Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) 5.6% yield
Pimco Emerging Markets Bond D (PEMDX) 5.6% yield

I'm not prepared to jump on any of these yet. Keep your powder dry.